ผลกระทบจากการเปลี่ยนแปลงสภาพภูมิอากาศต่อพืชหลักในแอฟริกาตะวันตก

Abstract

This study focuses on the effect of climate change on staple foods in West Africa by considering the mean and variance of climate variables as well as the corresponding productions with the use of stochastic production function. Moreover, panel approach method is also being used for the West African countries. This study applies econometric approach by using the Just and Pope Production function to explain the effect of observed variables (Temperature and precipitation) on the production of Cassava, Maize, Rice and Yam. Then examined the potential effect of climate change on the production of staple crops in West Africa for 2030 2060 and 2090 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results showed that, in relation to the effect of climate variables (temperature and precipitation), average temperature were positive on the mean production of cassava, rice and yam in the region. However, only yam was statistically significant. This implies that a one percent increase in average temperature leads to an increased production of yam at 4.3%. Meanwhile, maize was affected negatively from the effect of increase in average temperature, which implies that one percent increase in average temperature will result in 1.2% declination of maize production in the region. While the overall effect of an increase in total precipitation were, also positive on the mean production of maize, rice and yam, however, maize and rice were statistically significant at 90 and 99% respectively. This therefore implied that a one-percentage increase in total precipitation induces a 0.6 and 0.05% increase in the production of maize and rice respectively. At the same time, cassava received a negative impact on the effect of increase in total precipitation. The variance of the observed effect showed that higher average temperatures increase cassava, rice and yam production variability in the region. Only rice was statistically significant at 90%. While maize production variability decreased with a statistical significant of 95%. Cassava, maize and yam production variance increased with an increase temperature variability in the regions with 99% statistical significance for cassava and yam, whereby rice production variance decreases in the region. While total precipitation on production variability were all-negative at 99% statistical significance for maize and yam. Except for cassava, which was positive at 99%. Therefore, higher amount of total precipitation increase the variation of cassava production but decrease the variability of maize, rice and yam respectively. The future potential effect of climate change on the production of staple crops in West Africa under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for years 2030, 2060 and 2090 showed that, both cassava and maize will be most threatened negatively by the effect of climate change in the region. While rice and yam showed a positive increase in production under both scenarios for years 2030, 2060 and 2090 in the region.