ผลกระทบจากการเปลี่ยนแปลงสภาพภูมิอากาศ ต่อการพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจในภูมิภาคอาเซียน

Abstract

This study estimates the potential effects of climate change on the gross domestic product in the ASEAN region based on historical data from 1995-2018. An econometric panel model to examine the impact of the changing climatic and non-climate change variables on the gross domestic product in the ASEAN region, including precipitation, variance precipitation, temperature, variance temperature, labor-force, current account balance, inflation rate, and total investment. The variables used for a fixed-effect model estimation which the results show some significant and insignificant. Based on estimation results, if the policymaker is concerned about climate change actions, it will help more comprehensive risk decision-making and policy exertions should be concentrated toward climate change to the total gross domestic product in the ASEAN region. Section B2's situation will focus on resolving local problems, economic, social, and environmental sustainability, as the population continues to grow. (But increases less than situation A2) emphasis on environmental protection at the local level, the region has moderate economic development. Technology has changed in many ways with environmental protection and equality. A society with an emphasis on local and regional levels with a projection of future weather changes of the ASEAN region is the average in each ASEAN region from the research of the impact of the future. Effects under the A2 emission scenario were found in 2039, 2059, 2079, and in 2099, the total gross domestic product in the ASEAN region has been affected. Lao PDR will be the most affected by climate change in the years 2039 and 2059, with 0.431 percent and 0.991 percent, respectively. Moreover, in the year 2079, Vietnam will be the most affected by climate change at 1.269 percent. In addition, in the year 2099, the Lao PDR will also be the most impacted by climate change at 1.276 percent. Effects under the B2 emission scenario were found in 2039, 2059, 2079, and in 2099, the total gross domestic product in the ASEAN region has been affected. Future climate change by the years 2039, 2059, and 2079 which Lao PDR will be the most affected by climate change at 0.353 percent, 0.554 percent, and 0.573 percent, sequentially. In addition, in the year 2099, Vietnam will be the most affected by climate change at 0.612 percent.